By Cedric Pulford

[First published August 14, 2002 by Observer News Service. Copyright Pulford Media Ltd. This article may not be reprinted or distributed either electronically or on hard copy without permission]

FOR the world's one billion Catholics, the wait is almost as painful as the illness is for the man on St Peter's throne. With Pope John Paul II heart-wrenchingly disabled, his head lolling to one side, speech slurred and body bent, a feeling of anticipation over the next papacy grows.

At more than two decades, the length of John Paul's reign also creates its own expectations that a change is due. Yet the Pope is not dying of Parkinson's - and at 82 he is not particularly old in modern terms. The disease may have a distance still to run. Neurosurgery to relieve characteristic involuntary movements may be to come. The UK's Parkinson's Disease Society explains that the disease is progressive but not by itself fatal, although a person's 'general physical and mental condition can either cause or exacerbate other illnesses and so contribute to the final cause of death'.

The deepening disabilities of the Parkinson's sufferer can include dementia, according to the American Association of Neurological Surgeons and Congress of Neurological Surgeons. None of which is good news if you are the earthly ruler of half the world's Christians and see the papacy as a trust from God that cannot be given up, as the Pope has indicated recently.

Even so, he has precedents for resigning. Richard McBrien, writing in the international Catholic newspaper The Tablet, identifies four and possibly six popes who resigned. The last was Gregory XII in 1415, as part of a negotiated end to the Great Western Schism (1378-1417), when there were two, and later three, simultaneous claimants to the papal throne. There is no recorded instance, however, of a pope resigning his office because of physical or mental incapacity, McBrien says. Nor does the Catholic Church's Code of Canon Law provide any procedure by which a sitting pope can be removed from office through physical or mental incapacity.

John Paul is understood to have left a letter surrendering the papacy if he becomes mentally incapable, but McBrien says it is unclear who could execute such a wish if the Pope was unable to do so himself. Whenever it happens, the next pope will be elected in a secret conclave of the College of Cardinals. The Roman Catholic church is an unchallenged autocracy so the millions of faithful will have no direct input into the process. Nor can the candidates declare themselves in any way. They are supposed to do nothing except await the hand of the Holy Spirit touching them.

For some, like the liberals' favourite, Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini, the former Archbishop of Milan, the time may have passed for a realistic candidacy. As seen by Vatican watchers, cardinals currently in the running to succeed John Paul include:

-- Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga, Archbishop of Tegucigalpa (Honduras). A dynamic prelate, he may find his age - 59 - counts against him because it implies another long reign.

-- Juan Sandoval Iniguez, 69, Archbishop of Guadalajara (Mexico). Latin America is the biggest voting bloc in the College of Cardinals.

-- Giovanni Battista Re, 68. He is one of the most senior Vatican figures as prefect of the Congregation for Bishops, but may find that the electors prefer someone with recent pastoral experience.

-- Francis Arinze, 69, from Nigeria. He is another Vatican bureaucrat as president of the Pontifical Council for Interreligious Dialogue, but an African pope would play well in a crucial region for the Catholic church.

-- Jean-Marie Lustiger, Archbishop of Paris. He is a Jew by birth whose mother died at Auschwitz. At 75 he is younger than John XXIII when he was elevated to the papacy, and he became one of the most influential popes.

-- Dionigi Tettamanzi, 68, Archbishop of Milan. Long seen as 'papabile' (of papal quality), he is an Italian and as such might allow the electors to rise above regional politics.

The College of Cardinals reflects the social and theological views of John Paul, who appointed most of them; so a conservative successor might be expected. But Vatican watcher Austin Ivereigh thinks it could go the other way. 'They can choose either continuity or discontinuity. My guess is they'll go for discontinuity ? someone who will take on the big issue, which is globalisation,' he says. He believes Cardinal Rodriguez Maradiaga would be the best choice.

Others would cite different big issues for the Catholic church: sex abuse scandals in several countries, the ban on birth control in a world with too many mouths to feed, clerical celibacy and a critical shortage of priests, poor relations with Orthodox Christianity (which accuses the Roman Catholic church of canvassing for converts in its territories) and touchy relations with Protestants (who were affronted when the Vatican in 2000, in a document called Dominus Iesus, declared that Protestant churches were not churches 'in the proper sense').

The campaign for women priests may also grow to trouble the powers-that-be. Sister Myra Poole, of Catholic Women's Ordination, in the UK, is optimistic that change will come in the next papacy 'irrespective of who's there'. 'I'm very positive it's going to happen. There's an atmosphere of change even over five years,' she says. There is no lack of issues, but with John Paul II determined to soldier on, the next pope - and the whole Roman Catholic church - may have to wait for the Holy Spirit to come calling.

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